Odds are that this winter’s going to be a wet one. The intermittent climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which typically means more rain and snow for California, developed over the summer and is expected to intensify in the next few months. And this year’s El Niño is predicted to be an exceptionally strong one — maybe even ranking in the top five on record, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at U.C.L.A.
A major pattern change is set to deliver California’s first atmospheric river of the season next week. Significant rain and snow is in the forecast for the Golden State, while damp, dreary days are ahead for other parts of the West as signs of El Niño’s influence on the upcoming winter season emerge.
Less than a year after facing historic water shortages, California this week was declared drought-free thanks to a year of epic rains, with an El Niño forecast that could keep wet conditions going into 2024.
For California, especially Southern California, El Niño can typically mean larger storms in the winter which can mean more rainfall and larger waves along the coast. Graphic: NOAA
California’s lakes and reservoirs remain in very good shape as an El Niño winter closes in.
Following the record wet winter, lakes and reservoirs were nearly full to the brim as the melting snowpack made its way into them.
An El Niño winter snowfall map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted more good news for Lake Mead.
After years of drought the lake, located in Nevada and Arizona, reached drastically low levels in the summer of 2022. However, water levels have since started to recover because of above-average precipitation and snowpack that melted throughout this year. As of Wednesday afternoon, its levels were at 1,065 feet, 20 feet higher than this time last year.
With climatologists predicting the potential for above-average precipitation in the months ahead due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, it’s an ideal time to take advantage of the County of San Diego’s upcoming rainwater harvesting workshops and rain barrel rebates.
The County’s Waterscape Rebate Program will host free rainwater harvesting workshops in Fall and Winter 2023.
With climatologists predicting the potential for above-average precipitation in the months ahead due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, it’s an ideal time to take advantage of the County of San Diego’s upcoming rainwater harvesting workshops and rain barrel rebates.
The County’s Waterscape Rebate Program will host free rainwater harvesting workshops in Fall and Winter 2023. Workshops help residents learn how to capture rainwater to supplement their irrigation needs, save money on water bills, and protect our region’s environment by preventing pollutants from spilling into regional watersheds.
The County of San Diego holds free rain barrel rebate workshops at different locations. Use the QR Code for the latest schedule. Photo: County of San Diego
The next scheduled workshop is Wednesday, November 8, at 1 p.m. at Tractor Supply, 27444 Valley Center Road. Future workshops will be listed on the County of San Diego Waterscape Rebate Program website.
At the end of the workshop, residents who live in unincorporated areas of San Diego County may be eligible to receive a free rain barrel. Participants in incorporated areas can check their rebate eligibility on the San Diego County website’s interactive map.
The County of San Diego Watershed Protection Program (WPP) partners with the San Diego County Water Authority and Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (through SoCal WaterSmart) and can assist residents in determining which program benefits are available.
During San Diego County’s limited periods of rainfall, any rainwater captured from your roof and property saves money. It also helps the region maintain its water supplies.
Directing downspouts into water-collecting features in your landscaping makes use of rainfall. Photo: County of San Diego
Workshops introduce residents to several beautiful, efficient ways to save rainwater. In addition to rain barrels, directing downspouts to fill containers lets you choose how to use the rainwater you capture. The overflow should empty onto your yard or a landscape feature to infiltrate the excess flow into the soil. Rain chains can assist with this.
The Countyl of San Diego is committed to protecting the water quality in county creeks, streams, and coastal areas. Runoff from irrigation, storms, and even faulty septic systems can bring pollutants to county waterways and threaten public health.
When businesses and households make changes to reduce water use and use rainwater in their landscapes, it helps preserve healthy, safe waterways and more reliable water supplies.
After buying rain-saving containers or other items eligible for rebates, and have installed them, residents can apply for rebates. Current rain barrel rebates are $35 and are limited to two per household for most San Diego County residents. Multiple projects are eligible. Details at: Socal WaterSmart.
Making use of rain barrels is good for the environment and good for your household budget. Photo: National Audubon Society
Whether or not El Niño results in increased rainfall, even light rain can provide enough water for later use. A roof with a 2,000-square-foot surface area can capture 300 gallons from only a quarter inch of rain.
Stored water can be released gradually into landscaping between winter rainstorms, building up the soil sponge and ensuring that native plants get adequate water during the winter months when they need it most. If additional water is needed in the summer, captured and stored water during the winter could be used as supplemental irrigation.
The Solana Center For Environmental Innovation website has additional information on rain barrels and rebate programs.
With California facing the prospect of a second consecutive winter of heavy precipitation, state officials are urging residents to prepare for possible widespread flooding and evacuations in the coming months.
Barely a year after dozens of powerful atmospheric rivers pounded the state and triggered historic flooding, state officials gathered at a muddy berm and pumping station near the Sacramento River this week to highlight the threat of flooding in a warming climate.
For insight into the numerous atmospheric rivers that brought impressive precipitation accumulations to California this Water Year and how it compares to previous years, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes provides this end of water year 2023 summary.
• Water Year 2022 experienced a total of 61 landfalling ARs over the U.S. West Coast, 15 more than Water Year 2023.
• While WY 2022 experienced more ARs, a much larger majority of the ARs only impacted the Pacific Northwest.
• Water Year 2023 was dominated by a more southerly storm track, bringing stronger and more frequent ARs to California compared to the WY 2022
• This variation in storm track and AR distribution resulted in the Pacific Northwest experiencing below normal precipitation and California experiencing well above normal precipitation during WY 2023, a reversal of WY 2022
Analysis by Chad Hecht, Julie Kalansky, & F. Martin Ralph. This analysis is considered experimental.
Legislation signed into law by California Governor Gavin Newsom earlier this year ensures the state has the science and weather forecasting tools it needs for more flexible reservoir operations. The bill, AB 30, makes breakthrough water management technology standard for the California Department of Water Resources.
The legislation was introduced by San Diego Assemblymember Chris Ward and co-sponsored by the Sonoma County Water Agency and the San Diego County Water Authority. The bill was supported by the Water Authority’s partner, UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
The strategy is called forecast-informed reservoir operations, or FIRO, and it complements Gov. Newsom’s California Water Supply strategy released in August 2022 calling for more reservoir storage capacity to capture runoff from big storms, often fueled by atmospheric rivers. The governor and Legislature have already provided funding for state water managers to integrate the strategy.
(Editor’s Note: The San Diego County Water Authority has partnered with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego to better predict atmospheric rivers and improve water management before, during, and after those seasonal storms.)
After a blistering summer of record heat, raging wildfires and unpredictable storms, federal scientists on Thursday said a warm, wet winter driven by El Niño is in store for California and much of the rest of the country.
The first winter outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that a strong El Niño will remain in place through at least the spring, with further strengthening possible over the next couple of months.
